Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Variance and how to deal with it

I think this is one of the hardest things in poker, how to deal with variance. I think for me at the moment it's a big problem as i don't play enough games to beat the variance in a short period. I have 4.5K games on Sharkscope and last 1K i am having a breakeven strech. Off course this is not dramatic, but if you're used to winning it's no fun !!!!! I was running at 15% ROI after 3.5K games which was, in hindside, huge as half of my games are heads up matches.

As said, the real problem is that i only play 200-300 games a month, so if i'm on a bad run of 1K games for me that means 3/5 months , which is far too long.

So an important lesson is : if you ever want to beat the variance, or play more professional, play more games. When i look a the real SNG grinders like Gnasher, Rivva rat, Bigbanker, MrKangaroo, Arbboy , they all play loads.......I would say 1K a month is a minimum.

But from now on i look at it in this way : i win money everytime i register for a game, variance or not. I have 12% ROI on 11$ average limit, so that means i win 1.32$ per game in long term.

Also decided that once i reach 10K$ profit i will only play 20$ games from there on. Must try it once and it will certainly increase rakeback.

Day before yesterday had a bounty for taking out Imper1um in a 25$SNG , didn't receive it yet, mailed betfair and they say they have no details of the game, always problems with their stupid helpdesk .......

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